zhengzaishuru
A visitor post by Ovi
Below are a variety of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, normally reduced to “oil”, for Non-OPEC nations. The charts are produced from information supplied by the EIA’s International Energy Stats and are upgraded to April 2023. This is the current and most in-depth world oil production info offered. Info from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country-specific websites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is utilized to offer a short-term outlook for future output and instructions for a few of these nations and the world. The United States report has actually a broadened view beyond production by including rig and frac spread charts.
Where STEO information was utilized, the ratio of C + C to All Liquids was computed The average for the last 6 months was utilized to task the Might and June production numbers in a couple of cases.
World oil production and forecast charts exist at the end of this post.
April Non-OPEC oil production visited 407 kb/d to 51,049 kb/d. The biggest reductions originated from Canada, United States and Russia.
Utilizing information from the August 2023 STEO, a forecast for Non-OPEC oil output was produced the duration May 2023 to December 2024. (Red chart). Output is anticipated to reach 53,195 kb/d in December 2024, which is 787 kb/d greater than the December 2019 peak of 52,408 kb/d.
From May 2023 to December 2024, oil production in Non-OPEC nations is anticipated to increase by 2,053 kb/d, a relatively impractical projection. According to the STEO, the significant factors to the boost are anticipated to be the United States, near to 600 kb/d and Canada near to 700 kb/d, both quotes thought about to be on the high side.
April Non-OPEC W/O United States production visited 314 kb/d to 38,372 kb/d. May production is forecasted to increase by 108 kb/d.
From May 2023 to December 2024, production in Non-OPEC nations W/O the United States is anticipated to increase by 1,356 kb/d.
Keep In Mind that December 2024 output goes beyond the pre-covid high of 39,552 kb/d in January 2020 by 284 kb/d.
Non-OPEC Oil Production Ranked by Nation
Noted above are the World’s 10 biggest Non-OPEC manufacturers. The requirements for addition in the table is that all of the nations produce more than 1,000 kb/d.
April’s production drop for these 10 Non-OPEC nations was 401 kb/d while as an entire the Non-OPEC nations saw a production reduction of 407 kb/d. The leading 4 manufacturers had a combined output drop of 463 kb/d.
In April 2023, these 10 nations produced 83.5% of Non-OPEC oil production.
OPEC’s C + C production reduced by 26 kb/d in April while YoY it increased by 142 kb/d World mother production reduced by 433 kb/d while YoY output increased by 2,093 kb/d.
Non-OPEC Oil Production Charts
The EIA reported that Brazil’s production increased by 57 kb/d in April to 3,172 kb/d.
Brazil’s National Petroleum Association (BNPA) reported that output in May and June increased which June increased by 166 kb/d to 3,367 kb/d generally due to brand-new task start-ups, a brand-new record high, red markers.
Much of Brazil’s upcoming 2023 production development of near to 100 kb/d will originate from the extremely efficient pre-salt fields. From April 2022 to April 2023, production from the pre-salt fields increased by 173 kb/d.
According to the April 2023 IEA Oil Market Report: “We anticipate supply to reach a brand-new record high of 3.42 mb/d this year, up 300 kb/d y-o-y, as platform upkeep go back to typical scheduling and 5 extra FPSOs come online.“
According to the August OPEC MOMR: “ 2 brand-new FPSOs began production throughout Might, with Petrobras pumping the very first oil from the FPSO Anna Nery set up at the Marlim complex in the overseas Campos Basin. According to Petrobras, the Buzios subsalt fields likewise got its 5th production system, with the FPSO Almirante Barroso. Petrobras’ oil output fell by around 0.6% in the 2Q23 y-o-y due to losses from upkeep, in addition to the natural decrease of fully grown oil fields and some possession sales. Nevertheless, the petroleum output is anticipated to be supported by overseas start-ups revealed at the start of the year.”
According to the EIA, Canada’s production decreased by 187 kb/d in April to 4,446 kb/d. The Might drop to 4,351 kb/d, together with April’s was because of substantial upkeep at the oil sands mines and upgraders. The STEO is anticipating a production rebound in June to 4,480 kb/d.
According to the OPEC July MOMR: “Arranged upkeep programs throughout 2Q23 and 3Q23 are anticipated to soften output. It is the oil sands that are forecasted to be the primary chauffeur of Canada’s production through to the end of the year, driven by Kearl debottlenecking and CNRL (Canadian Natural Resources) Horizon optimization. Furthermore, the Terra Nova Drifting Production Storage and Offloading system (FPSO) is anticipated to reboot production in mid-2023.
This chart reveals the post-pandemic pattern in bitumen production in Alberta and the information is supplied by the Canada Energy Regulator Production in April and Might 2023 was impacted by extreme weather condition and plant upkeep. Usually, overall production has actually been increasing at a rate of 3.76 kb/d/mth, brown OLS. Taking a look at the 2 various extraction approaches, it appears that In Situ is gradually increasing while mined bitumen is holding stable.
According to the OPEC August MOMR report: Unrefined bitumen production output fell m-o-m by 259 tb/d, and artificial crude decreased m-o-m by 125 tb/d. Taken together, unrefined bitumen and artificial crude production visited 384 tb/d to 2.5 mb/d.
The EIA reported China oil output in April came by 73 kb/d to 4,210 kb/d.
The China National Bureau of Stats reported that production throughout Might increased to 4,256 kb/d.
While China’s production development has actually increased gradually because 2018, it might be approaching its post-pandemic high.
According to the OPEC July MOMR: “Natural decrease rates are anticipated to be balanced out by extra development through more infill wells and EOR jobs amidst efforts by state-owned oil business to secure energy materials.
For 2024, Chinese liquid production is anticipated to stay stable y-o-y and is anticipated to typical 4.6 m/d. For next year, Liuhua 11-1, Shayan and Liuhua 4-1 (redevelopment) are prepared to come on stream under CNOOC and PetroChina. At the very same time, the primary ramp-ups are gotten out of the Changqing, Kenli 10-2, Wushi 17-2 and Kenli 6-4.”
According to this source: From the low point in 2018 to the peak in 2023, China has actually included more than 600,000 barrels a day of additional production– more unrefined than some OPEC+ countries produce daily. Pumping about 4.3 million barrels a day now, China is once again the world’s fifth-largest oil manufacturer, just behind the United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Canada, and ahead of Iraq.
According to the EIA, Kazakhstan’s output increased by 2 kb/d in April to 1,905 kb/d. The STEO is anticipating a production drop to 1,809 kb/d in Might and holding stable in June at 1,809 kb/d.
Mexico’s production in April was 1,964 kb/d a boost of 29 kb/d over March. Output dropped to 1,959 kb/d in May and June, according to Pemex.
Mexico has actually just recently modified its meaning of condensate. This has actually led to the EIA including an additional 60 kb/d, typically, to the Pemex report. The red markers consist of the extra 60 kb/d.
The EIA reported Norway’s April’s production to be 1,827 kb/d. The Norway Petroleum Directorate (NPD) reported that May’s production dropped to 1,781 kb/d and after that rebounded to 1,818 kb/d in June. (Red markers).
According to the NPD: “Oil production in June was 0.6 percent more than the NPD’s projection and 0.5 percent lower than the projection up until now this year.”
According to this source: “The North Sea’s greatest oil field Johan Sverdrup now has the capability to produce as much as 755,000 b/d of crude.”
Oman’s production has actually increased extremely regularly because the low of May 2020. Oman’s April output was basically flat however dropped to 1,043 kb/d in Might.
Qatar’s April output was the same at 1,322 kb/d, potentially due to absence of upgraded info.
The EIA reported Russia’s April production was 10,077 kb/d. Utilizing information from the August STEO report, Russian output is anticipated to drop to 9,901 kb/d in May 2023.
Utilizing information from Argus Media, Russian production, as formerly reported by the Energy Ministry, was approximated for April and May. For April and May, Argus reported that Russian production of crude was 9,730 kb/d and 9,500 kb/d, respectively. May production is offered here Utilizing info from this S & & P Worldwide short article, Russian condensate production is close to 8% of unrefined production. Including the 8% to the unrefined production for April and Might leads to C + C production of 10,508 kb/d and 10,260 kb/d, respectively.
” Vienna– Russia’s condensate production balanced 833,000 b/d in November, energy minister Alexander Novak stated Friday.
Removing the November determine from Russia’s formerly reported oil output information reveals that unrefined production was 10.41 million b/d in the month.
Russia is looking for to omit its condensate volumes from its production quota under a supply cut contract with OPEC and 9 other allies, which the union will try to complete Friday in Vienna.”
In the past when info was straight offered from the Russian Ministry of Energy, the distinction in between the Russian Ministry and EIA was 404 kb/d greater. Comparing the 2 independent quotes above, Russian April output is 431 kb/d greater while Might is 359 kb/d greater. Usage of the Argus information supplies production rates fairly constant with the EIA quotes.
U.S. Might oil production reduced by 15 kb/d to 12,662 kb/d, a little modification, mostly due to the upward modification of April output from 12,615 kb/d to 12,677 kb/d.
The dark blue chart, drawn from the August 2023 STEO, is the projection for U.S. oil production from June 2023 to December 2024. Output for December 2024 is anticipated to be 13,359 kb/d which is 359 kb/d greater than the November 2019 peak of 13,000 kb/d. Keep in mind the distinction in between the August and July STEO projections for United States oil production. The August projection is in between 125 kb/d and 350 kb/d greater than reported in the July STEO projection.
While general United States oil production reduced by 15 kb/d in May, the Onshore L48 had a production boost of 19 kb/d to 10,527 kb/d. The light blue chart is the STEO forecast for output to December 2024 for the Onshore L48
These 6 nations total the list of Non-OPEC nations with yearly production in between 500 kb/d and 1,000 kb/d. Keep in mind that the UK has actually been contributed to this list because its production has actually been listed below 1,000 kb/d because 2020.
Their integrated April production was 3,891 kb/d, up 44 kb/d from March.
The general output from the above 6 nations has actually remained in a sluggish stable decrease because 2014 and appears to have actually sped up after 2019.
World Oil Production Ranked by Nation
Above are noted the World’s 12th biggest oil manufacturers. In January 2022, these 12 nations produced 76.8% of the world’s oil. On a mommy basis, production reduced by 413 kb/d while on a YoY basis, production increased by 2,133 kb/d.
World oil production reduced by 433 kb/d in April. The biggest reductions originated from Iraq, 210 kb/d and Canada, 187 kb/d while Saudi Arabia included 350 kb/d.
World Oil Production Forecast
World oil production in April reduced by 433 kb/d to 81,784 kb/d.( Green chart).
This chart likewise predicts World C + C production out to December 2024. It utilizes the August 2023 STEO report together with the International Energy Stats to make the forecast. (Red markers).
The red chart projections that World crude production in December 2024 will be 83,432 kb/d and is 1,151 kb/d lower than the November 2018 peak. Keep in mind the big boost to 82,028 kb/d in October 2023 This might be due to Saudi Arabia reversing part of its September 2023 1,000 kb/d cut.
World without the United States oil output in April reduced by 340 kb/d to 69,107 kb/d. May’s output is anticipated to reduce by near to another 416 kb/d to 68,691 kb/d. December 2024 output of 70,072 kb/d is 2,719 kb/d lower than October 2018 output of 72,791 kb/d.
World oil production W/O the U.S. from April 2022 to December 2024 is anticipated to increase by an overall of 965 kb/d.
Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this short article were picked by Looking for Alpha editors.